Dr. Clive Roffey

Dr Clive Roffey has first class honours degrees in both Metallurgy and Mathematics in addition to his Ph. D in Electrochemistry from the University of London, as well a host of professional qualifications.

He is the doyen of technical analysis in South Africa having first started professional analysis in 1968, just as the huge bull run to the infamous 1969 market peak occurred. Since then he has remained an outspoken independent professional analyst. He has survived numerous public attacks on his analysis by individuals who either failed to understand, or refused to investigate, the attributes of chart analysis. As most of his analysis has been presented in the public domain, either in the daily and financial press or on radio or television, all his critiques of market performance can be verified. He has lectured extensively at global and local investment conferences on analysis and holds master class courses on advanced technical analysis. Dr. Roffey is an executive member of TASSA, the Technical Analytical Society of Southern Africa, and consults to both institutional and private clients as well as producing his fortnightly newsletter 'Share Action'. He is a bunt, no nonsense columnist for several financial magazines and a pithy commentator on Radio 702, Classic FM Business and Summit TV.

Dr. Roffey's track record over the past 30 years is listed below.  No other analyst in South Africa has such a phenomenal track record of forecasting major market turns before they happened. 

Why should I share the knowledge that has been so successful for the past 30 years?

 
Personal Reasons
  • I am over 60 and have enjoyed a long and happy professional career in technical analysis.
  • I believe that it is time for me to impart some of my vast knowledge to those who are not as well versed in chart analysis or experienced in the way that markets move.

Analysis Reasons

  • Most analysts and fund managers have only been exposed to the bull markets of the past 20 years and are too young to have any understanding  of fully fledged bear markets.
  • I believe that many investors are frustrated by the conflicting views of so called expert commentators 
  • and tired of listening to brokers and institutional managers who are primarily talking to their books and who, in my opinion, are not giving a truly impartial view on the market.

Other Courses

  • Current chart courses tend to be crammed into one chapter as a minor part of a general course on stock market analysis and do not cover the range of subjects necessary for good decision making ...
  • or are flimsy commentaries that are used as oversimplified sales aids to the marketing of overly expensive computer software packages.

Fundamental Analysis

  • It is an almost impossible task for the average investor to undertake in depth fundamental analysis ......
  • that requires the analysis of reams of balance sheets and company reports that even professional accountants find difficult and time consuming.
  • Technical analysis properly studied and applied allows the analyst to reach meaningful conclusions on the whole market in a fraction of the time it takes to analyze the fundamentals of just one company.

Speed of Analysis

  • By the time you have completed this course it should not take longer than 15 seconds to analyse any one chart 
  • Using the exploration facilities of most commercial charting software it takes less than one minute to scan the whole market for shares that fit your analysis parameters.
  • In the time it has taken you to read to this point you could have critically analysed at least ten shares !!

I honestly believe that this course is far and away the best analytical training programme for practical chart decision making that is available in this country.

 
DR. ROFFEY'S MAJOR PUBLIC MARKET ANALYSES FOR THE PAST 30 YEARS
DATE ANALYSIS MARKET ACTION
March 1969 warned of an impending market crash on the JSE in two comments in the Rand Daily Mail. The JSE peaked in May 1969 and suffered the worst crash in its history.
June 1979 when gold was trading around $300 he forecast in a major article in the Rand Daily Mail that it would hit $800 around the end of the year. It peaked at $850 on January 16th 1980. 
November 1979 again reiterated the $800 target in the Rand Daily Mail,
and in the same article.		 It peaked at $850 on January 16th 1980. 
November 1979 also forecast that after the $850 peak it would fall rapidly to at least $400. By June 1982 gold had fallen to $285.
January 1980 he publicly won a Kruger Rand from another highly respected analyst who insisted that bullion was on its way to $1000. Gold peaked at $850 on January 16th 1980.
August 1981 in the Rand Daily Mail, he forecast that the JSE Gold index was close to a major peak. Three weeks later it hit its all time high
September 1987 detailed the huge rising wedge pattern that was building on the JSE Industrial index and warned that a very sharp sell off was likely. The market crashed in October 1987
September 1987 warned in the same article in the Datastock Review that the fallout would be a world wide event. All major global markets crashed in October 1987
November 1989 detailed the huge rising wedge pattern that had been building on the Japanese Nikkei index for over four years and warned that this index was set for a major crash. The Nikkei peaked at the 39 000 level and over 11 years later still trades at under half its peak.
November 1997 in a major institutional analysis detailed that "the 20 year bull market is over and a wide ranging gyrating market with a net sideways move is likely to take place as the market builds a major top pattern  for the coming bear market." The JSE Industrial index has moved sideways since 1997.
March 1998 in the Sunday Independent wrote two major articles detailing that the JSE Industrial index was heading for a 4000 point crash. The JSE Industrial index peaked in April 1998
March 1998 in the same articles warned that the euphoria for small cap stocks and emerging company unit trusts was a disaster about to happen many small caps are bust and most emerging market funds are less than 40% of their 1998 values.
July 1998 Magnus Heystek publicly attacked Dr. Roffey and his 4000 point crash analysis on the front page of the Saturday Star and dismissed his analysis as that of a crank. By September 1998 the market had collapsed 4000 points !!
October 1998 wrote two major articles in the Sunday Independent extolling the potential of the platinum shares and mining and resource unit trusts. At least six months before the market became aware of the potential.  Platinum shares have trebled  with the mining and resource funds being top performers.
October 1998 recommended the Property Trust and Loan Stock sectors as a major buy for defensive portfolios in an article in the Sunday Independent. The Property indexes have since doubled.
December 1998 analysed the dividend yields on the gold market in the Sunday Independent and stated that this was the bottom of the 1980 bear market for the JSE Gold index. The JSE Gold index bottomed in December 1998 at 650 and has since more than doubled, despite the negativity surrounding the gold price.
December 1998 in the same article rated Old Mutual Gold fund as an outstanding value buy. It bottomed at 95c in December 1998 and has since trebled.
May 1999 as an invited speaker at the first annual congress of the Association of Unit Trusts he detailed the end of the 20 year bull trend and the large sideways churning market pattern. He stated that defensive portfolios were the best option in a very dangerous market. Defensive portfolios based on gilts and income funds have outperformed the average equity unit trust.
July 1999 In Smart Investor, when gold hit $252, called this as the 1980 bear market low for bullion when most other analysts were calling for $200 and less. The gold price bottomed at $252 and has remained above that level ever since.
July 1999 in the same article called for a bullion rise to $325 by the end of the year. A completely opposite view to the prevailing sentiment. Bullion hit $334 in the September.
January 2000 in Share Action he continually warned that this was the top of the current market bull phase  The JSE peaked in January 2000
February 2000 warned on Radio 702 that the sideways market first forecast in 1997 had ended and that a major downward trending market had commenced. The JSE collapsed to April 2000
March 2000 on Radio 702 warned that the NASDAQ was another euphoric disaster about to collapse The NASDAQ fell 40% during the next two months and has not recovered since.
June to September 2000 continually warned in Share Action, Money Marketing and Smart investor as well as Radio 702, Classic FM Business and Summit TV that the upmove from April was a bear market rally that would lead to a catastrophic sell off in all world markets. World markets peaked in September and have since fallen dramatically, especially the NASDAQ.
October 27th 2000 Produced an Elliott wave analysis of the JSE Gold index that indicated an end to the weak gold market of the previous nine months and an extremely powerful bull market for the next 9 to 18 months. (Share Action)
October 27th 2000 Analysed a major top to the dollar against most other currencies. 
(Share Action)

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